- Last Updated: 4:34 AM, July 15, 2012
- Posted: 11:49 PM, July 14, 2012
The Phillies have almost no chance to reach the postseason.
It is more than just the eyesight test. To open the second half, Coolstandings.com — based on thousands of simulations of the season — gave the Phillies a 0.7 percent chance of being even one of the two wild cards.
The computers at Baseball Prospectus were more charitable — if by “more” you mean the difference between slim and simmer. At BP, the Phillies were bestowed a 0.8-percent postseason likelihood.
At least the Phillies can say they aren’t the Rockies, Padres, Cubs, Astros, Mariners, Twins or Royals, all of whom were literally given no shot — zero — of making the playoffs by BP.
Keep in mind these are just projections and that projections going into September 2011 couldn’t have been rosier for Boston and Atlanta or gloomier for Tampa Bay and St. Louis. It feels as if 24/7/365 social media has taken us to yet another level of relentless streams of pressure on teams and, because of that, perhaps blowing big leads will become more commonplace.
Also, BP’s midseason projections gave the Yankees a 93.7 percent chance of winning the division and 99.2 of being no worse than a wild card, and that just feels too high (the Mets were 10.2/27.2). Even more dubious was that the White Sox were given a 75.2 percent projection to win the AL Central, the Indians actually were second at 12.6 and the Tigers third at 12.2. Despite a half of troubling play, Detroit still is viewed within the industry as the strong favorite in the division.
These projections are malleable, pushed one way or another by winning or losing streaks. Just a week ago, for example, the Phils had a 3.5-percent chance at the playoffs. Nevertheless, only in a “Dumb and Dumber” world would even the most optimistic Phillies fan look at a 3.5-percent likelihood and brag, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance.”
This dim playoff prognosis strongly suggests the Phillies should become sellers in this month’s trade market, and if that is the case, they instantly become the main attraction because Cole Hamels would become the best player available.
The Phillies already have sent out feelers to determine interest in the All-Star lefty and could be forced to become a seller if their poor play continues early in the second half. Nevertheless, a pretty strong sentiment remains among outside executives that Philadelphia is more inclined to work feverishly to re-sign Hamels than trade him because:
1 The Phillies have joined the Yankees and Red Sox in mega-team land. Their run of five straight NL East titles has led to full houses and strong TV ratings. But to keep that passion the Phillies, like the Yankees and Red Sox, have satiated fans by importing or retaining stars. Those are usually older, high-salaried players more susceptible to breaking down physically or statistically — and taking a team with them. The Phillies are enduring this firsthand with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Roy Halladay.Follow @NYPostsports